PREDIKSI PERUBAHAN TUTUPAN LAHAN DI KECAMATAN SIRIMAU, KOTA AMBON MENGGUNAKAN CELULAR AUTOMATA- MARKOV CHAIN
Keywords:
Cellular Automata, Markov Chains, Tutupan Lahan, Kecamatan SirimauAbstract
Kecamatan Sirimau memiliki jumlah penduduk terbanyak di Kota Ambon yang berdampak pada kebutuhan terhadap lahan permukiman yang semakin tinggi meningkat, hal ini tentu akan mempengaruhi perubahan tutupan lahan yang tidak terkendali serta berdampak pada alih fungsi lahan dan kerusakan lingkungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk untuk menganalisis perubahan tutupan lahan Kecamatan Sirimau pada tahun 2012, 2017 dan 2022, serta memprediksi tutupan lahan tahun 2031. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Cellular Automata Markov Chains (CA-MC). Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa pada periode 2012-2031 luasan jenis tutupan lahan permukiman dan lahan terbuka terus bertambah seiring dengan bertambahnya jumlah penduduk dan tingginya kebutuhan akan lahan terbangun. Berbeda dengan tutupan lahan daerah pertanian dan bukan daerah pertanian yang mengalami penurunan luasan. Hasil penelitian diharapkan dapat dijadikan dasar dalam pengambilan kebijakan terkait penataan dan pemanfaatan ruang yang baik kedepannya
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