Topographic Enhancement of Extreme Rainfall in IKN Nusantara Based on Multi-Satellite Observations

David  F. Sinaga; Fira Humaira; Khezia T. J. Sinurat; Fataya A. R. Priatnam; Jogi Panggabean

doi:10.31851/jupiter.v7i2.19665

Authors

David F. Sinaga Marine Science Program, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Padjadjaran University
Fira Humaira Marine Science Program, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Padjadjaran University
Khezia T. J. Sinurat Marine Science Program, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Padjadjaran University
Fataya A. R. Priatnam Marine Science Program, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Padjadjaran University
Jogi Panggabean Marine Science Program, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Padjadjaran University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31851/jupiter.v7i2.19665

Keywords:

Orographic precipitation, Mesoscale convective systems, Satellite precipitation, IKN Nusantara, Extreme rainfall

Abstract

Indonesia's new capital city (IKN Nusantara) in East Kalimantan experienced devastating extreme rainfall on March 15-16, 2022, with mesoscale convective systems causing widespread flooding. This study aims to quantify the contribution of topographic forcing to extreme precipitation enhancement during the March 2022 event in IKN Nusantara. Daily GPM IMERG precipitation data, ERA5 reanalysis, and SRTM digital elevation models were employed to examine rainfall-topography relationships across IKN's complex terrain (elevation 0-812m). Results revealed counter-intuitive findings with a significant negative correlation between elevation and precipitation (r = -0.328, p < 0.01), contrasting classical orographic theory. The optimal precipitation zone occurred at 200-300m ASL (393.4 mm) with a 20% degradation at higher elevations. Forcing decomposition indicated that combined local effects contributed 41.5% of total precipitation, with topography contributing 17.5%. Cross-sectional analysis revealed a complex temporal evolution of orographic mechanisms with extreme spatial variability during the extreme event. These findings challenge the conventional understanding of tropical orographic precipitation and provide critical insights for infrastructure planning in Indonesia's new capital.

References

Adhikari, Abishek, and Ali Behrangi. 2022. “Assessment of Satellite Precipitation Products in Relation With Orographic Enhancement Over the Western United States.” Earth and Space Science 9(2):1–18. doi: 10.1029/2021EA001906.

Colle, Brian A. 2004. “Sensitivity of Orographic Precipitation to Changing Ambient Conditions and Terrain Geometries: An Idealized Modeling Perspective.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 61(5):588–606. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0588:SOOPTC>2.0.CO;2.

Farr, Tom G., Paul A. Rosen, Edward Caro, Robert Crippen, Riley Duren, Scott Hensley, Michael Kobrick, Mimi Paller, Ernesto Rodriguez, Ladislav Roth, David Seal, Scott Shaffer, Joanne Shimada, Jeffrey Umland, Marian Werner, Michael Oskin, Douglas Burbank, and Douglas Alsdorf. 2007. “The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission.” Reviews of Geophysics 45(2):65–77. doi: 10.1029/2005RG000183.

Hermawan, Eddy, Risyanto Risyanto, Anis Purwaningsih, Dian Nur Ratri, Ainur Ridho, Teguh Harjana, Dita Fatria Andarini, Haries Satyawardhana, and Akas Pinaringan Sujalu. 2025. “Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Their Impact on Heavy Rainfall in Indonesia’s New Capital City, Nusantara, in March 2022.” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 42(2):342–56. doi: 10.1007/s00376-024-4102-1.

Hersbach, Hans, Bill Bell, Paul Berrisford, Shoji Hirahara, András Horányi, Joaquín Muñoz‐Sabater, Julien Nicolas, Carole Peubey, Raluca Radu, Dinand Schepers, Adrian Simmons, Cornel Soci, Saleh Abdalla, Xavier Abellan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Peter Bechtold, Gionata Biavati, Jean Bidlot, Massimo Bonavita, Giovanna De Chiara, Per Dahlgren, Dick Dee, Michail Diamantakis, Rossana Dragani, Johannes Flemming, Richard Forbes, Manuel Fuentes, Alan Geer, Leo Haimberger, Sean Healy, Robin J. Hogan, Elías Hólm, Marta Janisková, Sarah Keeley, Patrick Laloyaux, Philippe Lopez, Cristina Lupu, Gabor Radnoti, Patricia de Rosnay, Iryna Rozum, Freja Vamborg, Sebastien Villaume, and Jean‐Noël Thépaut. 2020. “The ERA5 Global Reanalysis.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 146(730):1999–2049. doi: 10.1002/qj.3803.

Houze, Robert A., Kristen L. Rasmussen, Manuel D. Zuluaga, and Stella R. Brodzik. 2015. “The Variable Nature of Convection in the Tropics and Subtropics: A Legacy of 16 Years of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite.” Reviews of Geophysics 53(3):994–1021. doi: 10.1002/2015RG000488.

Panggabean, J. R. N., Syamsudin, F., Suaydhi, S., Purba, N., & Feng, X. (2025). Interannual climate variability impacts on rainfall extremes and flooding in Bandung. Jurnal Presipitasi: Media Komunikasi dan Pengembangan Teknik Lingkungan, 0. https://doi.org/10.14710/presipitasi.v0i0.%25p

Huffman, G., D. Bolvin, Dan Braithwaite, Kuolin Hsu, Robert Joyce, Christopher Kidd, E. Nelkin, Soroosh Sorooshian, Jackson Tan, and Pingping Xie. 2020. “NASA GPM Integrated Multi-SatellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) Version 06.” Nasa/Gsfc p30.

Kunz, Michael, and Christoph Kottmeier. 2006. “Orographic Enhancement of Precipitation over Low Mountain Ranges. Part I: Model Formulation and Idealized Simulations.” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 45(8):1025–40. doi: 10.1175/JAM2389.1.

Norman, Yosik, and Nurjanna Joko Trilaksono. 2019. “Investigation of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Indonesian Maritime Continent Using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite.” Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1204(1):012124. doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1204/1/012124.

Nuryanto, Danang Eko, Hidayat Pawitan, Rahmat Hidayat, and Edvin Aldrian. 2019. “Characteristics of Two Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over the Greater Jakarta: Case of Heavy Rainfall Period 15–18 January 2013.” Geoscience Letters 6(1):1. doi: 10.1186/s40562-019-0131-5.

Roca, Rémy, and Thomas Fiolleau. 2020. “Extreme Precipitation in the Tropics Is Closely Associated with Long-Lived Convective Systems.” Communications Earth & Environment 1(1):18. doi: 10.1038/s43247-020-00015-4.

Roe, Gerard H. 2005. “OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION.” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 33(1):645–71. doi: 10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122541.

Da Silva, Nicolas A., and Jan O. Haerter. 2023. “The Precipitation Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over Europe.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 128(23). doi: 10.1029/2023JD039045.

Sudarman, Gian Gardian, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Nining Sari Ningsih, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Muhammad Ridho Syahputra, and Fiolenta Marpaung. 2024. “Nonstationary Changes in Annual Rainfall over Indonesia’s Maritime Continent.” Advances in Meteorology 2024:1–11. doi: 10.1155/2024/9392844.

Panggabean, J. R. N., Putra, H. F., Habibie, I. M., Hidayat, M. R., Kurnia, J., Counedio, K. K., & Huseen, T. S. (2025). Environment-responsive smart materials: Sustainable innovation based on West Java climate data for future energy transition. Multidisiplin Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat, 4(03), 150–158. Retrieved from https://ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/pkm/article/view/7459

Sun, Alexander Y., and Guoqiang Tang. 2020. “Downscaling Satellite and Reanalysis Precipitation Products Using Attention-Based Deep Convolutional Neural Nets.” Frontiers in Water 2(November):1–22. doi: 10.3389/frwa.2020.536743.

Tan, Mou, Ab Ibrahim, Zheng Duan, Arthur Cracknell, and Vincent Chaplot. 2015. “Evaluation of Six High-Resolution Satellite and Ground-Based Precipitation Products over Malaysia.” Remote Sensing 7(2):1504–28. doi: 10.3390/rs70201504.