Analysis of the Effect of ENSO and IOD on High to Very High Rainfall in South Sumatra for the Period 2000–2024

Reza Ramadani; Rahmawati Rahmawati; Rita Sulistyowati

doi:10.31851/jupiter.v8i1.22049

Authors

Reza Ramadani Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas PGRI Palembang,
Rahmawati Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas PGRI Palembang,
Rita Sulistyowati Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas PGRI Palembang,

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31851/jupiter.v8i1.22049

Keywords:

ENSO, IOD, high and very high rainfall, South Sumatra

Abstract

High to very high rainfall variability in South Sumatra was a hydroclimatological phenomenon influenced by interactions between atmospheric and oceanic dynamics at various temporal scales. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were two global climate phenomena that played important roles in influencing rainfall distribution in Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the influence of ENSO and IOD variability on high to very high rainfall events in South Sumatra during the period 2000–2024. The study applied a quantitative approach based on climatological statistical analysis using monthly time-series data. Rainfall data were obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG), while the Niño 3.4 index representing ENSO and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) representing IOD were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The relationships between variables were analyzed using Pearson correlation, simple linear regression, and multiple linear regression to determine the partial and simultaneous relationships between ENSO, IOD, and rainfall variability. The results showed that ENSO and IOD exhibited negative relationships with rainfall variability in South Sumatra. Simultaneously, ENSO and IOD influenced rainfall variation, although their contribution was relatively small compared with other atmospheric factors.

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